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UBS suggests the U.S. economy is on the verge of a "Roaring ’20s" revival, with a 50% chance of a booming economic cycle. Key indicators include sustained GDP growth of 2.5% or higher, inflation between 2-3%, and favorable monetary policy conditions. Recent surveys show economists are increasingly optimistic about avoiding a recession in the coming years.
UBS suggests the U.S. economy is nearing a "Roaring '20s" revival, with a 50% chance of a booming cycle driven by strong GDP growth and manageable inflation. Despite concerns over rising unemployment and geopolitical risks, recent economic indicators support a positive outlook for the coming years.
This week’s trade recommendation is to go long on the Volatility Index (VIX), with a stop loss set below the August low at 15.25 and an upside target above 30.00. Recent trading outcomes include a successful long position in New York sugar futures, which saw significant gains. With upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and non-farm payroll data, market volatility is expected to rise, particularly in this presidential election year.
Gold prices are experiencing a pause after a significant rise, with investors focusing on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and US jobs data. Currently, there is a 60% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Fed, while the labor market report anticipates an increase of 142,000 jobs. Investors are eyeing the $2,700 mark, with potential fluctuations influenced by developments in China’s economy.
Oil prices have retreated as developments in Libya ease supply concerns, with expectations of increased oil flow following agreements on central bank governance. Meanwhile, China's government is pushing for economic growth amid a downturn, while upcoming US price data and Fed Chairman Powell's speech may influence market dynamics.
Silver prices are nearing a 14-year high, approaching the significant $32.50 mark, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing in China and interest rate shifts in the U.S. Investors are closely watching upcoming speeches from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and new U.S. economic data for potential market impacts. The recent stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China are also contributing to the bullish sentiment among silver investors.
The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis point rate cut has sparked optimism in equity markets, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high and a year-to-date gain of 20.2%. This easing cycle is expected to support oil prices, projected to rise to around USD 87 a barrel by year-end, while gold has surged nearly 29% this year, potentially reaching USD 2,700 by mid-2025. However, the US dollar faces pressure as the Fed's cuts diminish its yield advantage, prompting investors to seek alternatives and diversify internationally.
Ethereum's price is influenced by the People's Bank of China's economic stimulus and potential easing of monetary policy, which may drive investors towards crypto assets. Attention is also on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and US price data, with the presidential election campaign adding further market dynamics. Polls show Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump, who is viewed as more crypto-friendly.
UBS Asset Management maintains a neutral stance on various asset classes amid signs of slowing growth and inflation. While European high yield offers attractive yields, credit spreads are close to cyclical lows, limiting potential price rises. The firm favors the Japanese yen due to anticipated monetary policy tightening and prefers US Treasuries for their improved hedging capacity.
Nestlé's recovery is bolstering the Swiss stock market as global markets react to the Fed's recent half-point rate cut, which has raised expectations for another cut in November. Analysts emphasize the Fed's intent to safeguard the labor market, with key inflation data and remarks from several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, set to shape future monetary policy.
Jerome Powell
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
us economy poised for another roaring twenties according to ubs
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